Tag Archives: Pakistan

At the Sunset of 2008

30 Dec

2008 ends on a sad note. The world has plunged into recession . Maybe we can venture a bit further and say – Depression. But then world economy is  at the end of the day  nothing but money and employment. That is OK. As a rule, whatever goes up has to come down. So we will be back to normal in no time.

what is sad is the massacre of Gaza. I was reading an article in The Hindu today on how a father of age 47 was preparing the funeral of his 2 sons aged 18 and 25. And I think. What is the kind of grief should he be going through? what will happen to his New Year ? What about his plans, dreams, wishes he would have had for his family?

How can you pacify a father who would have spent the best part of his life raising his children filled with dreams and aspirations , only to be taken away by a missile ? what happens to the hard work he would have put for the past 30-40 years where he would have sacrificed a lot to see his kids happy? Why should the world be so cruel to a man who had nothing to do with geo-politics or militancy or terrorism ?

As a fellow human being , what answers do I have for him ? This tragedy was not by nature. If it was of nature’s doing then there is no need for any justification. It was nature doing its work to bring balance. But then this monstrosity is man-made. I am as responsible for his sons death as the people sitting in Israel war cabinet deciding when and where to launch the next strike.

Can the US govt explain to me , why is Israel using bunker busting bombs ( the most devastating non-nuclear bomb) in a city filled with civilians? It is not a battleground . Can the US govt tell me How can they call Iran, North Korea, Iraq as Axis of Evil when the nations who are indulged in the killing are the Us and its Allies? What logic and justification is there in killing innocents ? How can they snuff out the future of a child and yet call themselves victims of terrorism? Haven’t you guys avenged enough for Sept 11?

I haven’t come up with any resolutions yet. But I ask myself today. How can I devote my life so completely to someone and make that person happy no matter what happens around me ? To what extent can I go to sacrifice my happiness to keep others happy? How should I define such a life ?

Dont forget Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project

12 Dec

the IPI route

The on going diplomatic war with Pakistan on the backdrop of the Mumbai terrorist attack (26.11.2008) has put the spotlight on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Many of my friends here actually have no clue what I am talking about . So let me put things in perspective .

So, what is

the IPI pipeline all about ?

  • The IPI pipeline is a 2,800 km overland pipeline carrying natural gas from Iran to India via Pakistan.
  • The total cost involved is $7.5b , which would carry 22 bmc gas per annum , which would later be increased to 55 bmc per annum
  • Currently India need 50 bmc per annum and would need 125 bmc per annum by 2025.

Now, what seems to be the problem? …. a lot actually

  • Dispute in pricing – Iran wants $8 per million BTU . but India says “No go”. India will not negotiate beyond $4 per million BTU.
  • No Trade Treaty – There is no trilateral agreement between the countries like the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) which binds 51 European countries. A legal treaty will hold each country accountable in delivery and receiving of gas under a accepter framework.
  • Uncle Sam is not ok – America as we know is completely against Iran and hence scorns at any bi or trilateral trade between India and Iran.So any trade agreement, that too as high cost as this, will definitely under mine US strategic value in sub continent .

  • Geo politics unrest 1.The pipeline has to go through Baluchistan which is an caught in a war hot zone. 2. The transit country ,Pakistan can cut supply to India in case there is conflict of war. And there is no legal bonding to stop Pakistan from doing so . why ? because while India recognizes Pak as one of its Most Favored Nation (MFN) in trade, it is not been reciprocated. 3. The gas transits charge with Pakistan has not been finalized yet. which means , Pak can squeeze the maximum out of the bargain and it can be changed anytime. Imagine what would have if Pak demands higher transits fee after the pipeline is built and running for 6 months. India wont be in a position to negotiate . Because India is a energy hungry nation and oil/gas plays a big role .

what are the alternatives ?

Instead of the the proposed pipeline , India and Iran can go for a LNG delivery deal. It is of course expensive but it would be relatively safe and stable as both the parties are bound to each other. Since LNG market is more mature , there will be some sort of competition and hence pricing can be regulated to an acceptable number. Since LNG ships would go via transits routes( import and export ports) the transit money will be stable and accountable by the host countries.

India currently has one port in Dhaej and another one coming up in Kochi. A long term trade via sea will also help India develop its own supply route, logistics and technology.